Apple Watch Expectations

As the hours count down to Apple’s spring event the media is rife with speculation about Apple Watch.

There is no doubt in my mind that it will be a huge success. Apple has got the user experience right, they have a product that is personal and familiar with warm human appeal. It’s the only product I can think of that is equally a tech and fashion design masterpiece. How many will Apple sell? I think there must be something like 350,000,000 compatible iPhones in use, if just 5% of users adopt Apple watch before the end of 2015 we will see Apple sell 17,500,000 units. That is far more than most expect, by I think it is reasonable. Most tech industry commentators can’t get there head around paying a lot of money for a watch but this is also a fashion accessory and they underestimate the value of that. Many people buy Apple products because they serve as a status symbol and Apple Watch will be the ultimate status symbol. At the same time it is by far the best smart watch.

What about onboard memory? Since it will be possible to store data on the Watch such as music or pictures there will certainly be onboard memory for the user to manage. I think we will see 8GB of memory across the range. I think that is plenty to facilitate the Watch’s intended use. Apple already have to handle a variety of different units accross the collections, adding memory tiers would greatly complicate supply and inventory challenges.

Sport. The Apple Watch starts at $349 for the 38mm Sport. Will the 42mm cost more? Quite likely. Perhaps $379.

The stainless steel Apple Watch. This version is probably going to be significantly more. It has a sapphire crystal display (vs the Sport’s glass), ceramic back (vs the Sport’s plastic) and the space black version is finished with a quality Diamond-Like Coating. I think the stainless watch will start at $599 with the sport band. Other band options will push the price up considerably. The link bracelet may increase the price to $999 or more.

The Edition. The pricing of the gold collection is anyone’s guess. It seems possible that Apple may use a unique Metal Matrix Composite 18 caret gold. Such material may be less dense and more durable than other 18 caret gold alloys. This material will be far harder to scratch and may also be machinable. So the advantage to the wearer would be a lighter more durable gold and the advantage to Apple might be that it is easier to mass produce compared to other gold watches. However, Apple might not choose to pass these savings onto consumers. I think that the “experts” that have estimated the case to have about $1000 of gold are wrong. I have three tiny gold coins that are together worth about $2,500 and that does not seem like enough gold to me. I expect to see the Edition start at $6,499 with the gold pinned sport band. The edition with the modern buckle may cost closer to $9,999 since there is more gold work in the buckle. This is a wild guess, we will find out the actual pricing very soon.


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